Tomorrow is the big day! The 2011 Tony Award nominations will be announced live at 8:30 am eastern time by Tony Award winners Matthew Broderick and Anika Noni Rose. So, on this nomination eve, as expected I'm sure, I figured I would offer up my predictions and opinions :-).
Let's begin with the design awards. On the play front, there are several plays with fantastic designs, I'd say both War Horse and Brief Encounter are shoe ins, at least War Horse. I'd also say that The Importance of Being Earnest, Good People, and The Pee Wee Herman Show have good chances of being nominated.
As far as musicals go, The Book of Mormon will most likely be nominated for every award is eligible to be nominated for Producers style. Other shows that are sure to get design award nominations include Priscilla, Wonderland, Catch me if you can, Anything goes, How to succeed, and baby it's you. The design for a musical nominations will probably be used to spread a little love to the shows that aren't getting nominated for performance or best new or revived play/musical awards.
Best director of a play nominees are sure to include Emma Rice for her brilliant Brief Encounter, Joel Grey and George C. Wolfe, for the much lauded revival of The Normal Heart, Moises Kaufman for Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo, the last slot could go to David Levoiux for Arcadia, Brian Bedford for The Importance of Being Earnest, and Daniel Sullivan for The Merchant of Venice.
Best Choreography: There are some new faces in the mix, but for the most part the heavy contenders already have tony awards. The most likely are Kathleen Marshal for Anything Goes, Rob Ashford for How to Succeed. Jerry Mitchel will also probably be nominated for Catch me if you can. The last two spots will probably go to either Sister Act, Priscilla, or Baby it's you. I can't see Wonderland, The People in the picture, or any of the already closed musicals (Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson, Women on the verge, or The Scottsboro boys) getting nominations. The only exception may prove (and deserves to be) Susan Stroman who has done some of the best work of her career for The Scottsboro boys.
Best Director of a musical will probably follow suit with choreographer. Rob Ashford and Kathleen Marshal will probably score nods, along with Jerry Zaks for Sister Act. The other nominations could go to Priscilla, The People in the picture, or The Scottsboro boys. Baby it's you, Wonderland, and Catch me if you can are unlikely to score nominations.
The featured actor and actress categories are harder to pin down because they are far more expansive. Also, some performers who characters are technically featured roles have been bumped up to leading status because of who is playing them.
I think that featured actor in a play will see nominations go to The Pittman Painters, Arcadia, A free man of color, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo, The mother fucker with the hat, The house of Blue Leaves, and The Normal Heart.
Featured Actress in a play nominees are easier, because there are always fewer stand outs. This year, Judith Light for Lombardi, and Estelle Parsons for Good People are sure to be nominated. Arcadia will also see some of it's women nominated, as well as Brief Encounter. Edie Falco stands a good chance of being nominated for The House of Blue Leaves.
Featured Actor in a musical will probably see nominations go to Nick Adams for Priscilla, John Laraquette for How to Succeed. The other slots could really go anyplace. None of the featured male performances are really garnering much attention. Tom Wopat could get a nom for Catch me if you can, as well as Chester Gregory for Sister Act, many of the men from The Scottsboro Boys deserve to be nominated, but it will be tough for them since the show closed so early.
Featured Actress in a musical is just as hard to narrow down this year. Victoria Clark is sure to get a nom for playing Mother Superior in Sister Act, Laura Osnes for Anything Goes, Rose Hemingway for How to Succeed. The other slots could be filled by one of The Shirelles from Baby, it's you, one of the nuns from Sister Act, or perhaps Kerry Butler from Catch me if you can, or Karen Mason from Wonderland or Nicole Parker from The People in the picture. Don't count out Laura Benanti or Patti Lupone for Women on the Verge either.
The leading Actor in a play category is the toughest to call because there were some fantastic performances from men this season. The ones who deserve to be nominated are Dan Lauria for Lombardi, Brian Bedford for The Importance of Being Earnest, Bobby Canavale for The Mother Fucker with the hat, Santina Fontana for The Importance of Being Earnest, James Earl Jones for Driving Miss Daisey, Joe Mantello for The Normal Heart, Al Pacino for The Merchant of Venice, Mark Rylance for Jerusalem, and Robin Williams for Bengal Tiger at The Baghdad Zoo. Obviously that's too many to ACTUALLY be nominated. I'd say Robin Williams, Al Pacino, Brian Bedford, Joe Mantello, are sure to be nominated, and the last slot will go to either James Earl Jones or Dan Lauria.
Leading Actress in a play has only seven eligible women. This makes it pretty easy to predict. Nina Arianda for Born Yesterday, Frances McDormand for Good People, Vanessa Redgrave for Driving Miss Daisy, Lilly Rabe for The Merchant of Venice. The last slot could go to Kathleen Turner for High, or Hanna Yeland for Brief Encounter.
Leading Actor in a musical has more choices, but few standouts, so they will probably go to Daniel Radcliffe for How to Succeed, Tony Sheldon for Priscilla, Andrew Rannels for The Book of Mormon, Norbert Leo Buttz for Catch me if you can, and either Will Swenson for Priscilla, Josh Gad for The book of Mormon, or Collin Donnell for Anything Goes.
Leading Actress in a musical is the easiest to call. Donna Murphy, Sutton Foster, Patina Miller, the last slot will probably go to Beth Leavel, but could possibly go to Janet Dacal if they want to give Wonderland a sympathy nomination. My money is on Miss Leavel though, who elevates Baby its you, from its bargain basement roots.
Best revival of play: Earnest, Merchant of Venice, Normal Heart, Arcadia
Revival of a musical only has two choices, and they will both be nominated.
Best new play. There are 14 new plays to choose from, however only 8 with a serious chance of being nominated. The definites are War Horse and Bengal Tiger, the other two slots could go to Good People, The Motherfucker with the hat, Jerusalem, or Ghetto Klown. John Leguizamos previous Broadway offerings have been nominated for Tonys before.
Best New Musical has 12 choices but only 7 that have real chances of being nominated. The Book of Mormon, Sister Act, Priscilla, are sure to be nominated, with the last going to either The People in the picture, Catch me if you can, or, if there is Justice in the world of Musical Theater, The Scottsboro boys.
Welll folks, there you have it! Tomorrow at 8:30 am we will see for sure who gets nominated and who gets snubbed.
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